You are hereby banned from joining in ANY reindeer games!

Social credit system” – how many people even know what that means? Its the ultimate Wrong Think retaliation tool first rolled out in China and now coming to some would say their puppet on a string the United States. Especially when you consider the social justice warriors about to take over the American government, Biden and Harris (Harris and Biden?). In China what it came down to is removing economic viability from a persons life.

Oh we don’t kill you, or put you in jail, we just cutoff all ability for you to do business. Imagine: you can’t buy groceries, you can’t rent an apartment, you can’t get a job, you can’t receive medical services. You’re kind of out of luck ain’t ya? Andrew Torba the founder of Gab found this out a while back. Gab was picking up steam and the first thing “they” did was take away electronic payment systems.

People could no longer donate to the ad free Gab through PayPal, Visa, Mastercard and the like. Gab had to turn their Post Office box into their sole fundraising source for awhile. Think about that, the year 2020 and the only way they could raise money was a check by snail mail. Then they turned on Torba personally and denied him and his family the ability to have a credit card. Think about that, we don’t like your political views so we’re going to deny you a credit card??

Its the full realization of “cancel culture” and the libs are loving it. “We will have compliance dammit!” You have complete freedom of thought, as long as we approve. The conservative organizations experiencing this are screaming at their Republican reps to fix this and its not even on their radar. The social credit system is the ‘mark of the beast’ that was prophesied and no one even sees it.

I myself experienced this through First National Bank of Omaha. They decided my NRA Visa card was responsible for mass shootings so they sold my account to another company. And I had the aggravation of setting up a new company. I suppose I should consider myself lucky, I still had a card.

Buy! Buy! Buy!

Darkstore CEO and founder Lee Hnetinka

Darkstore CEO and founder Lee Hnetinka

Hnetinka was interviewed this morning on CNBC. I wonder if Darkstore is “Amazon” 20 years ago, ridiculed as a joke and not taken seriously? Amazon put ‘brick and mortar’ on life support, Darkstore might be the stake through the heart.

Darkstore as I understand it simply provides urban warehousing and ‘last mile’ delivery for online retail partners. They determine what their most popular consumer items are (shoes, makeup, consumer electronics), and Darkstore warehouses it and provides 2 – 3 hour delivery. Not 2 – 3 day ala Amazon Prime, 2 – 3 hour.

Absent teleportation, that’s pretty quick. Hnetinka pointed out that Amazon builds their fulfillment centers in rural areas, already losing transportation time to Darkstore’s urban facilities. But that’s all setup, and not the main point of my post.

Like Amazon and others, what they are all looking towards is automation, AI, drones and contract labor (like Uber, Deliv, TForce, Final Mile). And of course illegals. Its part of a longtime trend American business has had to get people to Buy! Buy! Buy! – but they don’t actually want to provide the jobs so that people have the money to buy their stuff.

Once you’ve screwed everybody out of a job, oh you’ve “brought down costs” alright, you just don’t have any customers left.

“Americans are voting to legalize weed. It’s unlikely the next Congress will do the same.”

Politico had an interesting article this morning about marijuana legalization. Its going gang busters at the State level, yet nothing seems to be happening at the Federal level. Huh. They blame it on “conservative” members of Congress, especially the Senate, that just don’t like marijuana doggone it! I laughed! That’s not the reason of course. If ever a story was leaving out the real motivations. Congress passing up a taxable event? That’s not like them. Passing up another vice that would weaken America? That’s not like them.

The real reason of course is that the marijuana industry is not coming across with the cash. Their companies are run by such incompetent boobs they can barely keep their heads above water, let alone devote the billions necessary in order to get a law passed. Congress, especially the Senate, has their hand out. If any law is going to get passed, palms have to be greased first. Nothing happens in Washington unless there is a transfer of money. Our government is a whoring institution like none other. “Politico” knows this. Look at their name, they know how politics works.

As someone who knows firsthand, the marijuana industry is run by a bunch of dopers so bad at business they’ve managed to go broke selling weed! How do you do that?? Its like not being able to sell chocolate at a fat farm. Hotdogs at a baseball game. Beer at a college campus. You’ve got to be really bad. Just look a little at MedMen, Tilray, Aurora Cannabis and others, their finances suck! All they’ve been is a Blackhole for cash. They don’t have the billions needed to get a Law passed in Washington.

Do honest people operate like that?

Bizarre experience. I really wanted to make Coins Stamps & Stuff my LCS (local coin shop), the one up here in Ames is even bigger crooks. I go in there bright and early Saturday morning to buy some silver bullion (non-numismatic silver coins or bars). I started out at Jordan Creek so its no big deal to hit Hickman Rd on the way back. In order to figure out if I was going to buy Buffalo, Maple Leaves or Liberties, I asked the woman at the counter what the spread was (the price over spot) for the 3 coins. She wouldn’t tell me!

She had it in her head I was this spy for “the guy up the street”, and that I was going to know what their prices were and tell everybody! I got to thinking about it after I walked out, “You’re a business, don’t you want people to know what your prices are?” Wouldn’t you want to be known as having “the best prices in town!” Evidently they operate under the theory that you have to buy it if you want to know what the price is!

Its crazy! Then it started coming back to me. I’ve been in these places once in awhile for 50 years, they never have posted their prices (the spread). It reminded me a month ago when I went to the shop in Ames, I was quoted $3.50 over spot on the phone, when I went in she told me $10. Her word against mine. Nothing I could do, they don’t post their prices. None of them do. Its like some closely guarded secret. A damn business needs to post their damn prices.

Is that the way honest business people operate? Not in my book. I can assure you I’ve never been an industrial spy for anyone, I thought you were an honest business. And as stated earlier, why wouldn’t you want people to know your prices?

I think the bottom line is there’s a reason they don’t want to be nailed down on their prices, to have them posted. If they keep it verbal, it can be on a sliding scale, depending on whether they think you’re a sucker or not. Whether or not they think they can “take you”. They shouldn’t be free to be all ‘carny’ like, they need to post their damn spreads.

Private profits, public risk

Before taxpayers bailout one more business, 2 things need to happen. Senior management, CEO and board of directors need to be on half pay. They also need to have presented a plan where they show how they will build a reserve of 9 months of operating expenses for the next rainy day. This nation is $27T in debt and cannot afford to keep bailing out these fools. “Too big to fail” – all they do is fail.

The one issue that matters

The chart is of the French CAC index, a mirror of the DJIA

It didn’t start out well this morning listening to CNBC. The first words I heard were “sector diversity”. What they mean by that of course are stocks grouped by category like industrials, banking, retail, transportation, etc. All you have to do is look at 100 year charts of the market. 2001 and 2008 being prime examples. There was no protection through diversification, everything crashed. Stocks, bonds, metals. There was no difference growth and value stocks. Large caps and small caps all crashed. There were no safe havens in overseas stocks. Every chart could be laid on top of the other.

Then I realized that every show on CNBC is like every financial show you hear on the radio: they’re all liars. Because they fail to address the 1 issue that matters. With 0 to near 0% interest rates the past 20 years (thus destroying bonds and cash as investment options), the Federal Reserve has removed 2 legs of the investment stool. Because there is no longer any competition for the investment dollar, there is nothing to hold stocks in-check.

Because there is no longer anywhere for money to flee, stocks have gone rogue. No dividends, no innovation and nothing but stock buy-backs benefitting senior management. And because these shows fail to address the ONE issue that matters, everything else they say is bullshit. There has to be competition. It is so basic. So fundamental. But they want to ignore the elephant in the room. You can’t throw out the window the principles of borrowing and lending. That is the basis of all business.

You destroy the most basic principle of business, the relationship between borrower and lender (with 0% interest rates), and you expect everything to work right? On top of this is the preposterous notion that a central bank can set the interest rates more knowledgeably than the market?? That is so ignorant its incomprehensible.

Oh to have patience!

noun

“the quality of being patient, as the bearing of provocation, annoyance, misfortune, or pain, without complaint, loss of temper, irritation, or the like. An ability or willingness to suppress restlessness or annoyance when confronted with delay: to have patience with a slow learner. Quiet, steady perseverance; even-tempered care; diligence: to work with patience”. Dictionary.com

Do you have patience? The ability to put off instant gratification is so important in life. In fact I’ve heard it explained as its the difference between successful people and low-class behavior. Saving for tomorrow. Looking ahead. Not being blindsided. Thinking ahead a little bit saves so much time and money. How many times have I run to the store for something, and forgot an item. Or only bought 1 when I should have bought 3.

Its not just for shopping. Its planning your career. Your retirement. Giving your kids a boost for say a house in their future. Governments don’t think ahead. Less than 5 years after they put in over a half million dollar pedestrian bridge on a bike path, they decided, “Hey! Let’s rip that out and continue the road!” (that within a year they will take out a lane and put in a bike lane)

Part of what I was thinking in all this is because I know what is coming. Having lived through sharp stock market declines in ’73, ’87, ’01 and ’08, I know what is coming this November and the following 6 months. All hell is going to break loose. The reelection of the most hated President in history, the court challenges, the resulting street violence, the attempted coup by the Democrats and RINOs, the appointment of a successor to Ruth Buzzy Ginsburg. A “perfect storm” is coming our way.

What is truly amazing to me is how it will all play out with perfect coordination and synchronicity. Once again, its all about ‘looking ahead’. Finally I am. Forewarned is forearmed. When we get within a week of November 3, pay attention.

As an example, you’ll get no help from CNBC. They are all, “La di da di da! Everything is fine!” As they blather on about Tesla this, Nikola that, Apple something else. The ‘Bullshit-O-Meter’ is off the charts. There’s an orchestrated crash coming in late October / early November, and nobody is talking about it. One morning around that time, about 10:30 in the morning, the market will plummet 10,000 points and they’ll suspend trading for the day.

Then, they’ll have to talk about it! They’ll act all like, “Where’d that come from?” People won’t have been prepped, they won’t be ready to buy, but the professional will. And another fleecing of the flock will have taken place. That’s not quite true. I think this one will go on for several weeks. I can see 50% coming off the market top of 29,100, easy. Would not at all be surprised to see 65%.

I’m just restless and impatient because until then, everything is too high. The market is too high to buy stocks, metals are too high to buy silver. We’re just in a holding pattern until the dam breaks. Talk radio really sucks right now. Radio hosts Armstrong & Getty, who I had thought would replace the morning idiot Jeff Angelo, turn out to be about as dumb. They think its okay that Louisville cops can bust into a house at 1 am and gun down Breonna Taylor.

FOX News is pointless. CNBC as noted is worthless. So ya better like the old movie channel! So until then its “hurry up and wait!”

$16,000 vs $10,000 per pupil

That is what we spend per pupil versus what the world spends (wait for it), and our student is a year behind theirs in educational equivalency! How do they do that?? Its just incredible the waste that exists inside the educational – industrial complex. I’ve followed this casually for 25 years. I’ve talked to Christian school and homeschool experts who also report their students are 2 – 3 grades ahead of the public school students! But wait: both the Christian school and the homeschooler are operating on shoestring budgets! If NASA wants to study Blackholes, they need look no further than the government school system. Its been said for decades that .75 cents of every education dollar is lost feeding the bureaucracy in Washington DC.

Did you keep your powder dry?

Do you have liquidity? You may want some in 45 days. After totally missing the boat in 2001 and 2008, I am ready to sail this time. If only I knew then what I know now. In 2 weeks I should be rolled over from T Rowe Price to Vanguard. My ROTH should be well on the way to maximizing the 2020 allowance. Aside from a couple of thousand in stocks, the rest will be sitting in cash, in anticipation of the crash (see what I did there, ‘cash/crash’).

Look at the storm clouds we have on the horizon: COVID-19, a sitting President so hated that Bob Woodward’s book has revealed talks of a military coup, the election contest of said President that is guaranteed to be contested, another stimulus package that will completely deplete the lending reserves of this country (in addition to the unprecedented amounts already handed out this year), China’s military flexing it muscle in the Far East, its economic muscle here, and the fact that since June for the first time not all of our nation’s debt is being bought.

If there aren’t wild swings ahead for us in the market I will eat my proverbial hat. What I feel bad for is the people who will not be ready for this, and the mistakes that will be made. When the market loses say 65% of its value over a 2 week period, that is the time to go shopping. Regrettably, many people at or near retirement will panic and sell. People at or within a year of retirement should already have pulled their money out of the market.

For those people 5/10/15/20 years away from retirement, the best thing they could do is just what they’re doing, putting money in every 2 weeks just like they’ve been doing. If they can up the amount they’re putting in when the crash happens, that would be great too. If they want to go down to Coins Stamps ‘N’ Stuff on Hickman and buy a little gold and silver bullion, that’s not a bad idea either. I wouldn’t buy a whole lot, we’re at a market top. A little insurance wouldn’t hurt though, if in 3 years today’s prices seem cheap.

“The financially troubled Post Office”

“You completely missed the boat about the Postal Service. You repeat the vague “financially troubled Post Office”, with no recognition of why they have ran a nearly $5 billion dollar deficit the past 14 years. In 2006 Congress required them to prepay 75 years into the future $5 billion a year into “future retiree healthcare”. That is prepaying for ‘retirees’ that aren’t even born yet. Why would they place this 75 year mandate that is not found anywhere else in government or civilian business? Because Congress wanted a cash cow. They wanted a pool of money they could drop an IOU into and take the cash, just like they do with SSA, Medicare and FERS. Absent that Congressional mandate, they are either flush or profitable the past 14 years.”

This was a response to the Federalist on Facebook. I would have put it on the Federalist website, but a couple of months ago Google told them if you ever want to show up on search results again, you are going to get rid of your comments section. So now the only way to comment on their articles, you have to do it on Facebook. Can you say censorship?

For the sake of brevity in my paragraph about Postal woes, I left out 1 key little tidbit. Democrats feign like they are for the Postal Service. Yet in all these bailouts the past 6 months where everybody and their uncle is getting money thrown at them, the one entity that isn’t is the Postal Service. Huh. Why is that? Both sides of Congress want to kill the Post Office.

The first reason is they want the 1 time influx of cash from the sale of delivery and sorting functions. That’s just a one time blip though, that they can’t profit from personally. What they really want, is the real estate the Postal Service has owned in really prime downtown locations for 200 years. That’s where they stand to profit personally. Snatching up the sale of the land, then turning back around and leasing it back. Its a shell game.

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