The one issue that matters

The chart is of the French CAC index, a mirror of the DJIA

It didn’t start out well this morning listening to CNBC. The first words I heard were “sector diversity”. What they mean by that of course are stocks grouped by category like industrials, banking, retail, transportation, etc. All you have to do is look at 100 year charts of the market. 2001 and 2008 being prime examples. There was no protection through diversification, everything crashed. Stocks, bonds, metals. There was no difference growth and value stocks. Large caps and small caps all crashed. There were no safe havens in overseas stocks. Every chart could be laid on top of the other.

Then I realized that every show on CNBC is like every financial show you hear on the radio: they’re all liars. Because they fail to address the 1 issue that matters. With 0 to near 0% interest rates the past 20 years (thus destroying bonds and cash as investment options), the Federal Reserve has removed 2 legs of the investment stool. Because there is no longer any competition for the investment dollar, there is nothing to hold stocks in-check.

Because there is no longer anywhere for money to flee, stocks have gone rogue. No dividends, no innovation and nothing but stock buy-backs benefitting senior management. And because these shows fail to address the ONE issue that matters, everything else they say is bullshit. There has to be competition. It is so basic. So fundamental. But they want to ignore the elephant in the room. You can’t throw out the window the principles of borrowing and lending. That is the basis of all business.

You destroy the most basic principle of business, the relationship between borrower and lender (with 0% interest rates), and you expect everything to work right? On top of this is the preposterous notion that a central bank can set the interest rates more knowledgeably than the market?? That is so ignorant its incomprehensible.

“The post-Trump era”

“The post-Trump era will begin as soon as Trump starts his 2nd term. The neocons, lolbertarians, cuckservatives, and beltway establishment losers will be attempting to forge the future of the party for the next four years.

The future of the party is making Christ the center of it, just as our Founding Fathers did when they laid the foundation of this great country.

The weak and pathetic “Christian” leaders (across every church and denomination) will not step up to do this. It’s on us to do so with the Holy Spirit leading the way. We are going to have a real revival in this country and it’s going to happen FAST on the internet, that I can tell you.” – Andrew Torba

[Andrew Torba is the founder of Gab, the free speech platform started about 4 years ago. He came out of Silicon Valley, riding a white horse, no wait that’s another story. But he did come out of the liberal tech world, he saw firsthand the censorship being used to silence conservatives. So he started up Gab which alternates between being attacked, and being ignored. I won’t try to cover all the assaults he’s suffered the past 4 years, but the ones with the credit card companies is the most ironic. It came out today Mastercard and Visa are under pressure to cut ties with the terrorists that are using them to transfer money around the world. Years ago they quit letting supporters of Gab use their services to make donations to ad free Gab. They even cutoff Torba and his family’s personal accounts from using Mastercard or Visa. But they’re fine with helping terrorists.]

When exactly did the world go crazy?

Somewhere along the line America went off the rails. It is unclear when this happened, or why. But without question, this country is most certainly in the ditch. I realize every preceding generation believes that the one after it is worthless as shit, but I really believe that is so this time. Pop culture is in the toilet, poisoning the mind. Academia is openly teaching Marxist revolution. In politics it was revealed in the latest Woodward book that Mattis and others in the US Military contemplated a coup on President Trump.

Catholic politicians and voters are lifelong proabortion Democrats and see no contradiction. Leftists have been rioting in the streets without prosecution for the past 5 years. Name a landmark movie in the past 40 years? Educational standards have been declining for 60 years. At $26 trillion in debt the government is insolvent. Because of nonexistent borders, the country to the south has 30 million of their residents in our country.

I keep coming back to what I see as the turning point for this country, the late sixties. Watergate, Vietnam, race riots, assassinations, rampant drug abuse. Then there were the “Carter years”, malaise, Anita Bryant taking a pie in the face for telling us exactly what was going to happen by mainstreaming sexual perversion (boys thinking they’re girls, normalizing pedophilia, gender surgery, not knowing what bathroom to go into).

Below is a YouTube video: “A drive through 1940’s Los Angeles!” Tell me that’s the same country? California is America’s ‘canary in the coalmine‘.

[When I was looking for 60s era baseball photos I ran across this one of pitching legend Sandy Koufax (if you want fun look at a series demonstrating his pitching motion, you wouldn’t think the human body is capable of what he did with his body). What seeing this picture did was remind me of something I noticed the other day: Where are the sports legends? Back in the day even a casual observer of baseball knew the names Mantle, Marris, Mays, Aaron, Drysdale, Rose, Bench, Jackson, Brock, Wills and other players. In basketball you knew Chamberlin, West, Russell, Havlicek, Unseld, Jabbar, Erving and more. Boxing: Ali, Patterson, Frazier, Foreman, Norton and on and on. Football: Unitas, Namath, Gabriel, Stabler, Simpson, Brown, Staubach… The same phenomena is in popular music. They’re not going to be playing the simpletons of today 50 years from now on an oldies station, but they will still be playing Elton John and Billy Joel. They ain’t gonna be showing reruns of Modern Family 50 years from now, but they will be showing Andy Griffith. Here is who I know of from today: Basketball LeBron James. Music Taylor Swift. Off the top of my head I cannot name you a single football player (whoops QB Tom Brady), baseball player or a current TV show. I don’t think its all OFS (old fart syndrome), I think there’s something there.]

Oh to have patience!

noun

“the quality of being patient, as the bearing of provocation, annoyance, misfortune, or pain, without complaint, loss of temper, irritation, or the like. An ability or willingness to suppress restlessness or annoyance when confronted with delay: to have patience with a slow learner. Quiet, steady perseverance; even-tempered care; diligence: to work with patience”. Dictionary.com

Do you have patience? The ability to put off instant gratification is so important in life. In fact I’ve heard it explained as its the difference between successful people and low-class behavior. Saving for tomorrow. Looking ahead. Not being blindsided. Thinking ahead a little bit saves so much time and money. How many times have I run to the store for something, and forgot an item. Or only bought 1 when I should have bought 3.

Its not just for shopping. Its planning your career. Your retirement. Giving your kids a boost for say a house in their future. Governments don’t think ahead. Less than 5 years after they put in over a half million dollar pedestrian bridge on a bike path, they decided, “Hey! Let’s rip that out and continue the road!” (that within a year they will take out a lane and put in a bike lane)

Part of what I was thinking in all this is because I know what is coming. Having lived through sharp stock market declines in ’73, ’87, ’01 and ’08, I know what is coming this November and the following 6 months. All hell is going to break loose. The reelection of the most hated President in history, the court challenges, the resulting street violence, the attempted coup by the Democrats and RINOs, the appointment of a successor to Ruth Buzzy Ginsburg. A “perfect storm” is coming our way.

What is truly amazing to me is how it will all play out with perfect coordination and synchronicity. Once again, its all about ‘looking ahead’. Finally I am. Forewarned is forearmed. When we get within a week of November 3, pay attention.

As an example, you’ll get no help from CNBC. They are all, “La di da di da! Everything is fine!” As they blather on about Tesla this, Nikola that, Apple something else. The ‘Bullshit-O-Meter’ is off the charts. There’s an orchestrated crash coming in late October / early November, and nobody is talking about it. One morning around that time, about 10:30 in the morning, the market will plummet 10,000 points and they’ll suspend trading for the day.

Then, they’ll have to talk about it! They’ll act all like, “Where’d that come from?” People won’t have been prepped, they won’t be ready to buy, but the professional will. And another fleecing of the flock will have taken place. That’s not quite true. I think this one will go on for several weeks. I can see 50% coming off the market top of 29,100, easy. Would not at all be surprised to see 65%.

I’m just restless and impatient because until then, everything is too high. The market is too high to buy stocks, metals are too high to buy silver. We’re just in a holding pattern until the dam breaks. Talk radio really sucks right now. Radio hosts Armstrong & Getty, who I had thought would replace the morning idiot Jeff Angelo, turn out to be about as dumb. They think its okay that Louisville cops can bust into a house at 1 am and gun down Breonna Taylor.

FOX News is pointless. CNBC as noted is worthless. So ya better like the old movie channel! So until then its “hurry up and wait!”

$16,000 vs $10,000 per pupil

That is what we spend per pupil versus what the world spends (wait for it), and our student is a year behind theirs in educational equivalency! How do they do that?? Its just incredible the waste that exists inside the educational – industrial complex. I’ve followed this casually for 25 years. I’ve talked to Christian school and homeschool experts who also report their students are 2 – 3 grades ahead of the public school students! But wait: both the Christian school and the homeschooler are operating on shoestring budgets! If NASA wants to study Blackholes, they need look no further than the government school system. Its been said for decades that .75 cents of every education dollar is lost feeding the bureaucracy in Washington DC.

What a load of crap

SCOTUS Justice Ginsburg dies and we’re supposed to ignore what she stood for? Sorry, I can’t. She was as rabid a baby killer as they come. She was a new-wave justice that thought law derived from international precedent should be used as a basis to determine domestic law. She acted like a petulant 7th grader when Trump got the nomination, saying she’d move to New Zealand if he was elected.

And the utter selfishness that is so common in Washington: She knew she was terminally ill. Did it ever once occur to her, “You know maybe it would be better for the 330,000,000 people of this land, if they had a fully functioning person sitting on the most important court in the country?” Oh hell no, not her. Her own selfish interests were all that mattered. The concept of putting the country first would never occur to her. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

P.J. O’Rourke on the economic consequences of government

“Government does not cause affluence. Citizens of totalitarian countries have plenty of government and nothing of anything else. “

— P. J. O’Rourke

[See I thought P.J. O’Rourke was this obnoxious Trump hating redhead with a beard. Brent Bozell? This guy looks like an intelligent and rational person. I was wrong, he’s just another Trump hater.]

This quote in one sentence says everything that is wrong with the typical American’s way of thinking: The government doesn’t make you rich and the government doesn’t “solve” problems. Something so basic, something so well understood by our founders and by our founding documents. Where did that understanding go? How did we get so stupid? Politicians are work averse, they are incapable of accomplishing anything productive.

[People will never figure it out, but Republicans are the Washington Generals (the Harlem Globetrotter’s opponent). Their role is to be this strawman opponent that the Democrats can rail against and point to, then lose. I can name you Democrat victories going back to 1910 (gun control, the Federal Reserve, The New Deal, Great Society, the income tax…), but I can’t name you 1 Republican victory. The Republican Party is designed to be a Blackhole, sucking up all conservative time, energy and money, while producing nothing. Freedom will live when the Republican Party dies. – me]

“All government, in its essence… is the implacable enemy of every industrious and well-disposed man.”

“All government, in its essence, is organized exploitation, and in virtually all of its existing forms it is the implacable enemy of every industrious and well-disposed man.”

H. L. Mencken (1880-1956) American Journalist, Editor, Essayist, Linguist, Lexicographer, and Critic
http://libertytree.ca/quotes/H..L..Mencken.Quote.80FE


“There are, besides, eternal truths, such as Freedom, Justice, etc., that are common to all states of society. But Communism abolishes eternal truths, it abolishes all religion, and all morality, instead of constituting them on a new basis; it therefore acts in contradiction to all past historical experience.”

— Karl Marx (1818-1883)


“[T]he State’s criminality is nothing new and nothing to be wondered at. It began when the first predatory group of men clustered together and formed the State, and it will continue as long as the State exists in the world, because the State is fundamentally an anti-social institution, fundamentally criminal. The idea that the State originated to serve any kind of social purpose is completely unhistorical. It originated in conquest and confiscation — that is to say, in crime. It originated for the purpose of maintaining the division of society into an owning-and-exploiting class and a propertyless dependent class — that is, for a criminal purpose. No State known to history originated in any other manner, or for any other purpose. Like all predatory or parasitic institutions, its first instinct is that of self-preservation. All its enterprises are directed first towards preserving its own life, and, second, towards increasing its own power and enlarging the scope of its own activity. For the sake of this it will, and regularly does, commit any crime which circumstances make expedient.”

— Albert Jay Nock (1870-1945) American libertarian author, Georgist, The Criminality of the State, America Mercury Magazine, March, 1939

[Liberty Tree outdid themselves once again. 3 for 3. The proof of these 3 quotes exposing the reality of government is witnessed everyday around the world. The state of utter dysfunction cannot be denied. The unneeded misery. Its not conjecture, its observable. Yet here in America people in election years often speak of government as a “problem solver”. I immediately wonder, “What is it government ever ‘solved’?”]

Did you keep your powder dry?

Do you have liquidity? You may want some in 45 days. After totally missing the boat in 2001 and 2008, I am ready to sail this time. If only I knew then what I know now. In 2 weeks I should be rolled over from T Rowe Price to Vanguard. My ROTH should be well on the way to maximizing the 2020 allowance. Aside from a couple of thousand in stocks, the rest will be sitting in cash, in anticipation of the crash (see what I did there, ‘cash/crash’).

Look at the storm clouds we have on the horizon: COVID-19, a sitting President so hated that Bob Woodward’s book has revealed talks of a military coup, the election contest of said President that is guaranteed to be contested, another stimulus package that will completely deplete the lending reserves of this country (in addition to the unprecedented amounts already handed out this year), China’s military flexing it muscle in the Far East, its economic muscle here, and the fact that since June for the first time not all of our nation’s debt is being bought.

If there aren’t wild swings ahead for us in the market I will eat my proverbial hat. What I feel bad for is the people who will not be ready for this, and the mistakes that will be made. When the market loses say 65% of its value over a 2 week period, that is the time to go shopping. Regrettably, many people at or near retirement will panic and sell. People at or within a year of retirement should already have pulled their money out of the market.

For those people 5/10/15/20 years away from retirement, the best thing they could do is just what they’re doing, putting money in every 2 weeks just like they’ve been doing. If they can up the amount they’re putting in when the crash happens, that would be great too. If they want to go down to Coins Stamps ‘N’ Stuff on Hickman and buy a little gold and silver bullion, that’s not a bad idea either. I wouldn’t buy a whole lot, we’re at a market top. A little insurance wouldn’t hurt though, if in 3 years today’s prices seem cheap.

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